An intense debate swirls at the close of the European football season. Who will win the Ballon d’Or?
Football’s greatest individual prize, developed in 1956 by French journalist Gabriel Hanot, will be awarded to the best men’s player of the 24/25 season at a ceremony in the Théâtre du Châtelet in Paris on September 22.
Selected by an international jury of specialised journalists from the highest FIFA ranking nations, the award is given based on individual performance, a player’s team achievements, and class and fair play.
Despite these three criteria outlined equally, many fans and media place a greater focus on a player’s individual goals and assists.
But how much do ‘player stats’ determine the Ballon d’Or winner, and are there other factors that matter more?
Individual Statistics
In the past, the Ballon d’Or was based on a player’s performance during the calendar year. Since 2022, France Football have presented the golden ball to the best player of the ‘previous season’, which falls in line with the European football calendar.
Most of the front runners for the award have all finished the European season with high goal and assist outputs, as well as winning league titles and European trophies.
Raphinha – FC Barcelona & Brazil
The former Leeds United man was the most potent attacker in Europe last season, scoring 34 goals and providing 25 assists as FC Barcelona won a domestic treble. He had only scored 10 goals in each of his first two seasons at Barca.
Raphinha has become a big game player under manager Hansi Flick. He scored a brace and assisted in the Supercopa de España final against Barcelona’s eternal rivals Real Madrid. The winger also matched Lionel Messi’s record for goals and assists in a single Champions League season (19)
Raphinha plays with his usual Brazilian elegance and flair but, now, has contributed with goals and assists that have won his club major trophies. What doesn’t bode well for his chances is the genius who has emerged at the same club.
Lamine Yamal – FC Barcelona & Spain
The 17-year-old is already a global superstar. Lionel Messi, the eight-time record Ballon d’Or winner told Simplemente Fútbol: “He is still so young, and maybe in the future his playing style will change just like mine did when I started on the right wing.
“He has phenomenal abilities and today he is already one of the best players in the world.”
After leading his nation to glory at Euro 2024, Yamal went on to score 18 goals and provide a staggering 25 assists in the 2024/25 season, making him one of the most effective wingers in Europe. He was arguably more of a ‘big game player’ than his teammate Raphinha, scoring against Real Madrid in the league and also striking against Inter Milan in the first leg of the Champions League semi-final.
The prodigy from Mataró is challenging players in their prime for the golden ball. If he falls short this time, a whole career lies in front of him, and with that, many opportunities to win the accolade.
Kylian Mbappé – Real Madrid & France
The French world champion was described by many as a ‘flop signing’ at the start of the season. He went on to win the European Golden Boot, scoring 31 goals in La Liga. Although Real Madrid went trophyless, Mbappé looks back to his best. A player that has been touted as a future Ballon d’Or winner for many seasons, this time he may fall short through collective, rather than individual fault.
Mohamed Salah – Liverpool & Egypt
A player that has normalised incredible goal scoring stats in the Premier League, Salah is a Liverpool legend and was the best player as they comfortably won the title in England. Perhaps, Liverpool’s failure in Europe last season is the only point against Salah being the favourite for the Ballon d’Or.
Ousmane Dembélé – PSG & France
The winger is finally living up to the potential he always showed, delighting PSG fans with his magical dribbling. His productivity has increased dramatically, and he finished the season with 33 goals and 15 assists. As PSG won a treble, with Dembélé performing across every competition, it would be hard not to make him the favourite.
The Case for Vitinha and Mendes
Most names topping the goal scoring charts will dominate the discussion, but players with less eye-catching stats should not be ruled out.
Spain and Manchester City midfielder, Rodri, won the award last season, narrowly beating Real Madrid forward Vinicius Junior. Rodri is a vital player for both club and country. His job is not to score lots of goals or provide the final key pass, but to use his strength and football intelligence to dominate the centre of the park and keep the ball moving while under pressure.
He was the vital cog in the Manchester City machine that won the treble in 2022/23. This was evidenced even more when City went on a losing streak at the start of last season, while Rodri was absent for nearly the whole year with an ACL and meniscus injury.
Luka Modric won the golden ball in 2018, after winning the Champions League with Real Madrid and leading his nation, Croatia, to a World Cup Final.
The possibility is there for a midfielder or defender to win the prize. Liverpool centre back Virgil van Dijk finished runner-up in 2019.
In the last 10 years, 70% of Ballon d’Or winners have won the Champions League in the previous season. It would seem Europe’s most glorious trophy is becoming a prerequisite for winning individual awards, and is maybe more important than just pure goal and assist contribution.
PSG’s Vitinha and Nuno Mendes can draw inspiration from Rodri, Modric, and van Dijk. They may not have scored crucial goals, but they have been just as vital to their team’s play, as PSG achieved a historic treble.
Vitinha dictates the rhythm of the game, while Mendes has been an outstanding young defender, having nullified Lamine Yamal’s game in the recent Nations League Final.
As we are now well past the dominant stats era of Messi and Ronaldo, perhaps masters of the ball like Vitinha could reap the reward.
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